Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.313546 2.457838 2.610695 2.785407 2.980474 3.192627 3.442263
2025-05-11 2.088993 2.283968 2.500937 2.762755 3.073569 3.435305 3.895158
2025-05-18 1.945806 2.168237 2.424093 2.744747 3.142729 3.630352 4.289787
2025-05-25 1.834249 2.073422 2.355578 2.719831 3.188455 3.787832 4.643352
2025-06-01 1.743373 1.993684 2.295144 2.694066 3.223296 3.926292 4.980536
2025-06-08 1.679148 1.940531 2.261331 2.695735 3.289125 4.107053 5.396691
2025-06-15 1.634875 1.908307 2.250012 2.723212 3.388633 4.341154 5.924952
2025-06-22 1.567916 1.843023 2.191245 2.681289 3.385177 4.421650 6.217440
2025-06-29 1.506089 1.781016 2.132868 2.635009 3.369929 4.480021 6.478186
2025-07-06 1.444873 1.716956 2.068300 2.575518 3.329532 4.493246 6.658396
2025-07-13 1.423034 1.703396 2.070357 2.609500 3.430531 4.741452 7.315444
2025-07-20 1.406500 1.695792 2.079562 2.653453 3.549257 5.031502 8.118405
2025-07-27 1.388571 1.686025 2.085873 2.694429 3.668449 5.341066 9.054781
2025-08-03 1.351870 1.649204 2.052449 2.673544 3.684925 5.467662 9.615808
2025-08-10 1.318924 1.616243 2.022900 2.656507 3.705783 5.603995 10.239018
2025-08-17 1.286163 1.582329 1.990454 2.632906 3.713089 5.714301 10.829272
2025-08-24 1.255179 1.549836 1.958701 2.608492 3.716715 5.817156 11.433507
2025-08-31 1.233494 1.529646 1.943988 2.610074 3.765931 6.019142 12.402515
2025-09-07 1.219847 1.520286 1.944666 2.636109 3.860876 6.331271 13.863283
2025-09-14 1.189111 1.485584 1.906325 2.596383 3.831261 6.365469 14.397099
2025-09-21 1.158746 1.450639 1.866532 2.552501 3.790916 6.370904 14.835435
2025-09-28 1.126418 1.412119 1.820277 2.496056 3.723362 6.306613 14.988774
2025-10-05 1.118527 1.408689 1.826932 2.528304 3.828051 6.662207 17.046178